Avolon forecasts global passenger fleet to almost double by 2042

Avolon published (13-Jun-2023) its World Fleet Forecast, projecting trends in the commercial passenger aviation fleet to 2042. Details include:

• The global passenger fleet will almost double by 2042, growing 94% to 46,880 aircraft;
• Over USD4 trillion will be required to finance new deliveries, which will provide a major role for aircraft lessors;
• Regions with the biggest increase in travel by 2042 will be India (4.4%), China (3.7%), Asia (5%) and Latin America (4.9%). Mature markets including North America (2%) and Europe (3.1%) will continue to grow, although at a more moderate rate;
• 44,300 new aircraft will be delivered over the period and 21,600 aircraft will exit the passenger fleet through decommissioning at the end of their economic life or freighter conversion;
• Growth of the narrowbody fleet (112%) will outpace widebody fleet growth (97%) as new narrowbody aircraft are able to accommodate more passengers and trans continental flight distances. Regional jets (11%) and turboprop (36%) growth will be more modest;
• The global fleet will have transitioned to largely (95%) new technology fuel efficient aircraft by the end of the forecast period;
• Airbus is expected to maintain its market position in the narrowbody segment, accounting for 58% of the global narrowbody fleet in 2042, compared to 53% currently;
• Boeing will maintain its 59% share of the widebody segment, with the resumption of 787 deliveries a key driver;
• Supply constraints currently being experienced will continue into the second half of the 2020s, increasing the value of booked production slots and aircraft that have already been delivered. Airlines that have not secured sufficient capacity will rely on lessors for new and used aircraft. [more - original PR]