15-Jun-2023 11:38 AM

Airbus forecasts demand for 40,850 new aircraft by 2042

Airbus reported (14-Jun-2023) the following highlights from its global market forecast for 2023 to 2042:

  • Passenger traffic demand is forecast grow at a 3.6% compound annual growth rate over the next 20 years;
  • Airbus forecast demand for 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, of which 32,630 will be narrowbody and 8220 widebody;
  • Freighter demand is expected to reach 2510 aircraft over the next 20 years, with around 920 being newly built. Express air cargo growth will outpace general air cargo. The world freighter fleet in service will reach 3230 aircraft by 2042;
  • Only 25% of the passenger in-service fleet are latest generation aircraft;
  • Forecast deliveries by region: 
    • North America: 6970, 17% widebody and 83% narrowbody;
    • Europe and CIS: 7970, 20% widebody and 80% narrowbody;
    • Latin America: 2390, 8% widebody and 92% narrowbody;
    • Africa: 1180, 25% widebody and 75% narrowbody;
    • Middle East: 3420, 47% widebody and 53% narrowbody;
    • China: 9440, 15% widebody and 85% narrowbody;
    • Asia Pacific (excluding China): 9480, 21% widebody and 79% narrowbody. 

Airbus forecast China and India will power growth, further shifting aviation's 'centre of gravity' toward Asia. Airbus expects the pace of fleet renewal towards the most fuel efficient aircraft will likely accelerate. Around 17,170 older, less fuel efficient aircraft will be replaced by newer fuel efficient aircraft. Airbus noted the demand to replace older aircraft is likely to increase to achieve the industry's sustainability ambitions and commitments. [more - original PR]

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