2023-06-12 GMF 2023 Presentation
Global Market Forecast
Airbus’ latest edition of its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2023-2042 period offers a forward-looking view of air traffic and fleet evolutions.
The GMF 2023 connects the drivers for air transport demand (GDP, demographics…) with existing and future measures related to decarbonisation of the sector such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF).
The report highlights future traffic growth and aircraft demand (for aircraft over 100 seats category) as well as air freight development and demand for cargo aircraft (for aircraft > 10t payload).
It anticipates that demand for air traffic will continue to develop as it returns - or even already returned in many regions - to pre-crisis levels.
Aviation connects and unites us!
Aviation connections support business, governments, education, families and friends while air cargo provides essential services, carrying 35% of world trade by value. Aviation provides efficient, safe and affordable connections; while large population centers are often divided by ocean, mountains and deserts.
The GMF23 is based on macroeconomics assumptions from information services provider IHS-Markit and energy price assumptions considering EU-ETS, CORSIA and further compensation schemes to come, as well as assumptions on SAF penetration. The GMF 2023 explored thousands of sensitivities around energy prices, SAF penetration, GDP, fuel efficiency gains etc… The median of all scenarios is used as reference.
Airbus forecasts that demand for passenger traffic will grow annually by 3.6% (2019-2042 CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate) over the next 20 years.
Airbus forecasts a demand for 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, of which 32,630 will be typically Single Aisle and 8,220 typically Widebody.
The demand for Freighters is expected to reach 2,510 aircraft over the next 20 years, with about 920 of these being newly built.
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